Worldview Investing - Ruminations on the World Economy

Investors are facing multiple crises that span the globe. The one captivating the most attention is Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe after Russia. With 43 million people it is the eighth most populous country in Europe. As we all are now aware, it borders Russia to the west. Ukraine has an ancient history. It has been continuously inhabited since 32,000 BCE. Its population now includes 78% Ukrainians and 17% Russians - the latter of which are gathered mostly in the eastern regions and Crimea. It has a long history of being dominated by foreign powers including the Mongols in the 13th century. For six centuries it was fought over and ruled by Poland, Austria, the Ottoman Empire, the Tsardom of Russia and most recently the USSR.

Whether you own a small neighborhood retail store or are the CEO of General Motors, you need to know whether the economy is shrinking or growing. If it is the former, you may decide to cut staff, reduce inventories and defer updating your technology in order to conserve cash. If it is the latter you may choose to preemptively hire staff and buy machinery and equipment to grow your output capacity in expectation of future sales growth. The typical way one gleans this important trend is to study gross domestic product (GDP) statistics.